I divide my email into three categories: A1 = spam. A2 = low priority, A3 = high priority. I find that: P(A1) = .7 P(A2) = .2 P(A3) = .1 Let B be the event that an email contains the word "free". P(B|A1) = .9 P(B|A2) = .01 P(B|A3) = .01 I receive an email with the word "free". What is the probability that it is spam?
The most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability ~ Laplace
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